Tuesday, April 18, 2017

International Passenger Traffic Analysis for Kempegowda International Airport Bengaluru

Indian Civil Aviation market has been growing at the rate of 15-25% YoY from last 10 years, Domestic Passenger Traffic has been growing rapidly at about 20+% in the recent years & International Passenger Traffic though not growing as high as Domestic, but still at a decent rate of ~8% in the recent years. This post gives the analysis of the International Passenger Traffic for Kempegowda International Airport, Bengaluru/Bangalore.

Below is the chart showing the top International Routes from Bengaluru for the year 2015 & 2016 for Passenger Traffic over 100,000

In the year 2016, there were no new International Destinations added from Bengaluru, the only new additions were, Jet Airways started new service to Singapore from 14th December 2016 & Oman Air started second daily service to Muscat from Bengaluru in Dec 2015, hence we can see there is a 70% increase in Passenger Traffic on the Bengaluru - Muscat Route. Other major increase in traffic can be seen in Bengaluru - Frankfurt at 16.9%, Bengaluru - London at 15.7%, Bengaluru - Dubai at 10%, Bengaluru - Abu Dhabi at 7% & Bengaluru - Bangkok at 6%. There is a slight decline in Passenger Traffic of about 4-5% between the routes Bengaluru - Hong Kong & Bengaluru - Kuala Lumpur.
Although Bengaluru - Frankfurt & Bengaluru - London has just one daily, the traffic on these routes has been increasing & load factor is always more than 85%, these routes seems to be underserved & hence can accommodate more frequencies. The German carrier Lufthansa can add an additional destination from Munich to Bengaluru & either the Indian carrier Jet Airways or the British carrier Virgin Atlantic can add new flights from Bengaluru to London.


Below is the chart showing region wise traffic from KIA, Bengaluru:

The de-facto region, which is almost 50% share is the Middle East Region, with all MEB3 flying in to Bengaluru & Emirates itself with 47% share in this Middle East Region for the year 2016. Off course the reason is, its more than the O&D traffic, the connectivity to the other parts of the world provided by these Gulf Carriers & the amazing service. Also this region has been growing from the region share of 48.7% in 2015, it grew to 50.9% in 2016. Most surprisingly Bengaluru is not connected to Bahrain by any direct flight, its been unserved route since many years, not sure why airlines are not interested on this unserved route, probably when Jet Airways becomes the second/third largest hub for Bengaluru, they might start.

The second biggest region is the Asian region which actually declined from a region share of 35.8 % to 32.9%, the major destinations in this region are Bengaluru to Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong, Colombo & Kuala Lumpur. The year 2017 should definitely see an increase in this region as Jet Airways added new daily flights to Singapore & Colombo from Bengaluru with B737-800 on both routes with seat capacity of 156 per flight. The other potential destinations in this region that are unserved as per routesonline are Narita Airport (Tokyo), Yangon (Rangoon), Shangai-Pudong, Beijing-PEK, Dhaka-Bangladesh. Korean Air has been planning to add service to Bengaluru from Seoul-Incheon, but still no confirmation yet. Ho Chi Minh City is another potential destination from Bengaluru.

The third bigger region is the Europe region which actually grew from region share of 14.9% in 2015 to 15.4% in 2016. As of April 2017, there are only 3 destinations from Bengaluru to Frankfurt, London & Paris. Jet Airways has secured slots in Amsterdam Airport Schiphol to start Bengaluru - Amsterdam daily on A330 in winter 2017, but the bookings are not open yet, so still need to wait for the final confirmation. This route has been the top unserved route from last 6-8 years as per routesonline data. Other potential destinations in this region from Bengaluru are Istanbul-Turkey (routesonline unserved route - Batumi), Stockholm-Sweden (Again routesonline data), Dublin-Ireland (annaaero unserved routes), Brussels (annaaero unserved routes), Moscow-Russia (my own research)

Fourth region though a very very small one with just one destination Mauritius, that too an island country & not in the mainland is the African region. Region share is < 1%. Though there is a lot of traffic between Bengaluru & the African countries, either the students from Africa coming to Bengaluru or people visiting African countries for leisure travel & wild life safaris or employment in either countries. Ethiopian city Addis Ababa is one of the unserved route from Bengaluru as per routesonline data. Under the new Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries signed in 2015, though Ethiopia has be allowed to exchange Bengaluru in place of Kolkata as a new point of call, there have been no direct passenger flight between ADD & BLR. A potential route worth to consider by Ethiopian Airlines or Indian carriers Jet Airways or others. Nairobi-Kenya is another unserved route in Africa as per routesonline unserved data & so is Seychelles.

Fifth region is the North American region, there is again only one direct BLR-SFO via DEL by Air India, this region grew from just 120 in the year 2015 to 5006 in 2016. Majority of the destinations in North America are by one of two stop connections via the Middle East or Europe or Asia Pacific. The top unserved routes in this region are BLR-SFO (routesonline data) one of my favorite :) Kingfisher Airlines during its peak had plans to start non-stop BLR-SFO flight, the only other Airlines who are capable of this long haul route are United Airlines & Air India. I hope one day there will be a direct non-stop flight on BLR<-->SFO. The other unserved routes are BLR-JFK with which had a one stop booking of 3342 in Aug 2015, this is the O&D from BLR-JFK only, but if the connections beyond BLR in South India & beyond New York - JFK in the Eastern coast of the USA are considered, a new non-stop service on this route can be added. Same goes with BLR to Chicago-ORD & Atlanta also as per unserved routed by routesonline.

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